China | Asia | Energy, Including Oil and Peak Oil | The New Economy
China Back to top
Black Dragon River by Ben Whately, 2006
Ben Whately decides to spend a year in Qiqihaer, China to learn Chinese. Why this remote city of 5.5 million Chinese with not “even the slightest interest either for tours or for businessmen… very few non-Chinese ever visit…”? Because it’s a remote city that attracts neither tour nor businessmen. This is about experiencing China as the Chinese experience it, not through the filter of a pampered, Holiday Inn, English speaking CNN-TV-in-the-hotel-room version. Black Dragon River details the amusing struggles encountered as a young man attempts to conquer China.
“Anyone who is ambitious in China needs to speak English. And to get good at English you need to find a native speaker to practice with. So every time you leave the foreigners dormitory, you are pounced on by hoards of people wanting to become your “language partner.” They claim that they will teach you Chinese as you teach them English, but it is clear who will get the best of the bargain.”
China Shakes the World by James Kynge, 2007
James Kynge first went to China as an undergraduate in 1982 when he studied Chinese at a University located between the Yellow River and the birthplace of Confucius. He returned to China in 1985 after graduating from Edinburgh University, and has lived and worked as a journalist in China ever since; including as China Bureau Chief for the Financial Times from 1998 to 2005. From the early 1980s when China was still in the first stages of its recovery form the Cultural Revolution, to the recent economic boom, James Kynge has had an insider’s view of China’s development over the last 25 years, and draws on all of his experience in this minutely researched but eminently readable work.
“Then, quite suddenly, or so it seemed, China became an issue of daily international importance. It is difficult to pinpoint when, exactly, that transition took place; perhaps it was late in 2003, or maybe it was early the next year. I could not be sure. In any case, it was unlikely that there would have been any single moment when everything changed. An object as large as China cannot turn on a sixpence. Nevertheless, in my imagination at least, there may have been a tipping point. It occurred during the several weeks from mid February 2004 when, slowly at first but with mounting velocity, manhole covers started to disappear from roads and pavements all over the world. As Chinese demand drove up the price of scrap metal to record levels, thieves almost everywhere had the same idea. As darkness fell, they levered up the iron covers and sold them to local merchants who cut them up and loaded them onto ships to China. The first displacements were felt in Taiwan, the island just off China’s southeast coast. The next were in other neighbours, such as Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan. But soon the gravitational pull of a resurgent ‘Middle Kingdom’ was reaching the furthest sides of the world. Wherever the sun set, pilferers worked to satisfy China’s hunger. More than 150 covers disappeared during one month in Chicago. Scotland’s ‘great drain robbery’ saw more than a hundred vanish in a few days. In Montreal, Gloucester and Kuala Lumpur, unsuspecting pedestrians stumbled into holes.”
Asia Back to top
Asia Rising by James Rowher, 1995
Slightly dated, this insightful book is still one of our favorites.
“Oddly, many people in America and Europe do not see the rise of Asia for what it is: the greatest, and most thrilling event of the last half of this century. Instead of rejoicing that so many people are now leading lives that are so much better than anyone dreamed possible only two generations ago, or rubbing their hands at the chances for ambitious and energetic Westerners that those better Asian lives will present, the worriers fret that the rise of Asia means the West—or at any rate, Western jobs and wages—must fall.”
Energy, Including Oil and Peak Oil Back to top
Twilight in the Desert by Matthew R. Simmons, 2006
We'd be lying if we said this extremely informative book was easy to read. The subject matter is inherently complex and the support for the arguments advanced by Matthew Simmons is by its nature dense. Simmons does an excellent job of making it as understandable as possible given the more important need to present his evidence in a robust fashion. If you want to fully understand the supply constraints in global oil production you must understand the supply constraints in the Saudi oil production. When you're done reading this you'll be able to speak intelligently with your oil geologist neighbor about recovery rates, water injection and reservoir pressure.
"Someday (and perhaps that day will be soon), the remarkably high well flow rates at Ghawar's northern end will fade, as reservoir pressures finally plummet below bubble point and head toward dew point. Then, Saudi Arabian oil output will clearly have peaked. The death of this giant king leaves no field of vaguely comparable stature in the line of succession. Twilight at Ghawar is fast approaching."
The End of Oil by Paul Roberts, 2004
If your local college were to have an introductory course in peak oil this might well be the text book. While most won't regard this as summer vacation beach blanket reading material, it is comprehensive, informative and understandable.
“In fact, since 1995, the world has used at least 24 billion barrels of oil a year but has found, on average, just 9.6 billion barrels of new oil annually. According to a study by Wood Mackenzie Consultants, industry is finding less than 40 percent of the new oil it needs to keep the base of known reserves from shrinking.”
National Geographic Cover Story: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller, June 2004
Given that it is National Geographic, it’s not surprising that this cover story is engaging to read and beautiful to view. You can find the online version here: http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/index.html. (Copy link and paste into your web browser window)
“Humanity's way of life is on a collision course with geology—with the stark fact that the Earth holds a finite supply of oil. The flood of crude from fields around the world will ultimately top out, then dwindle. It could be 5 years from now or 30: No one knows for sure, and geologists and economists are embroiled in debate about just when the "oil peak" will be upon us.”
Wall Street Journal Article: Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production By Russell Gold and Ann Davis, November 19, 2007
This article does an excellent job of delineating the difference between the peak oil theory and global production constraints while laying out the case that demand growth is up against production limits.
“Most of the world’s biggest fields are aging, and production at them is declining rapidly. So, just to keep global production at current levels, the industry needs to add new production of at least four million daily barrels, every year. That need is roughly the daily production of Alaska, with its big Prudhoe Bay field—and it doesn’t assume any demand growth at all.”
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2007
This is a 48-page pdf file that serves as an excellent source of raw data. But, if you really want to have fun, we suggest you download the Historical Data Excel file at: http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6848&contentId=7033471
This file is rich with statistical data on oil, coal and natural gas including historical data on production, reserves and consumption. The truly ambitious can make their own assumptions about future supply and demand and have a grand time making graphs, etc.
The New Economy Back to top
Wired Magazine Cover Story: Forget the Dow, Here Comes the New Economy by Spencer Reiss and John Browning, June 1998
This was the seminal article that led to the birth of the Global Innovators Fund. The Wired Index is no longer technically an index (it is now officially known as the Wired 40*), but the concepts are alive and well. The article is available on line from wired.com at: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/6.06/wired_index.html
“So, in the spirit of the intrepid Mr. Dow, we are launching the Wired Index. On the simplest level, our aim is to do for the information age what the Dow did for its predecessor: track the growth of the companies that are building the new economy - not just the usual high tech suspects, but a broad range of enterprises that are using technology, networks, and information to reshape the world.”
* The Wired Index, which is no longer formally an index, was launched by Wired Magazine in 1998 to track the growth of the New Economy. It was a 40 stock, equally weighted index. In 2003 Wired changed the name from the Wired Index to the Wired 40 and began referring to it as a list rather than an index.
It is not possible to invest directly in an index.